How the War in Ukraine Is Reshaping Global Maritime Trade and Shipping Costs

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the global maritime trade landscape has undergone one of its most dramatic transformations in decades. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the war’s impact on port access, fuel prices, and vessel demand continues to ripple across international supply chains. This 2025 analysis explores how these disruptions have reshaped shipping logistics, costs, and commodity flows worldwide.

The Black Sea Blockade and Global Supply Chain Ripple

The blockage of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports remains one of the most significant logistical challenges. Ukraine’s ports—once responsible for nearly 10% of global grain exports—have seen their capacity slashed, forcing a search for alternative trade routes. UNCTAD’s report titled “The War in Ukraine and Its Effects on Maritime Trade Logistics” highlights how the sudden loss of access to Black Sea infrastructure has increased global vessel demand and raised freight costs worldwide.

Between February and May 2022, dry bulk shipping rates—especially for grains—rose by almost 60%. The dual impact of rising freight and grain prices pushed global food prices up by nearly 4%, with almost half of that increase attributed directly to higher shipping costs.

For deeper background, see the UNCTAD publication archive and Reuters coverage on Ukraine’s maritime trade disruptions.

Energy Exports and the Fertilizer Chain Reaction

Russia’s dominance in fuel and fertilizer exports means that any supply disruption reverberates globally. With sanctions, trade restrictions, and rerouted logistics, energy and fertilizer prices have soared. This directly affects food production, as farmers face higher costs for fertilizer and fuel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that while alternative sources have emerged, they often come from greater distances—further increasing shipping costs.

As the report explains: “The Russian Federation is a giant in the global market for fuel and fertilizer. Disruptions in their supply can lead to lower grain yields and higher prices, with serious consequences for global food security.”

Global Shipping Costs Continue to Surge

Beyond Ukraine and Russia, freight rates remain high due to increased ton-mile demand—the distance cargo must travel. With traditional Black Sea routes restricted, commodities like grains, oil, and fertilizers are now shipped via longer paths, often through alternate ports in Turkey, Romania, and Western Europe.

Ports such as Constanța (Romania) and Istanbul (Türkiye) have absorbed some of Ukraine’s diverted trade, while Hamburg and Rotterdam are experiencing significant congestion due to rerouted shipments. According to logistics experts, these delays have caused spikes in detention and demurrage charges, adding more pressure on global trade networks and storage facilities.

Alternative Grain Supply Shifts

Despite the disruptions, the global grain market has partially stabilized through new export routes. Brazil is expected to increase its wheat and coarse grain exports by 37%, while the European Union and the United Kingdom have expanded shipments by nearly 85% compared to pre-war levels. Soybean exports from Argentina, Brazil, and the United States are also offsetting some of the global supply gaps.

However, alternative routes—like shipments from the Danube River ports of Reni and Izmail—cannot fully compensate for the lost capacity of Ukraine’s major Black Sea ports. Reduced throughput has also increased overland rail pressure across Central Europe, contributing to logistical bottlenecks and rising transport costs.

Container Congestion and Vessel Repositioning

As major carriers halted operations to and from Russia and Ukraine, ships and containers required extensive rerouting. Cargo once destined for the Russian Federation has piled up at key European ports. This container buildup mirrors the post-pandemic backlog of 2021–2022, reigniting concerns about global supply chain resilience.

Container shortages in certain regions, especially Asia, continue to push shipping container prices upward—affecting both ocean freight and local storage solutions. To understand how these fluctuations impact end users, check our resource Shipping Container Prices Update 2025.

UNCTAD’s Key Recommendations for Maritime Stability

In its report, UNCTAD proposes several policy recommendations to mitigate the long-term effects of the conflict on global trade:

• Reintegrate Ukrainian and Russian exports into global food and fertilizer markets to stabilize supplies.
• Reopen Ukrainian ports to international shipping for lower-cost grain exports.
• Lower transaction barriers for food and fertilizer exports from both nations.
• Improve coordination among flag states, port authorities, and shipping companies to maintain essential services like bunkering and certification.
• Facilitate worker movement across borders to ease labor shortages in logistics.
• Invest in transport digitalization and trade infrastructure to improve resilience against future crises.

The Path Forward for Global Maritime Trade

The war in Ukraine has accelerated the need for diversified shipping routes, smarter logistics planning, and stronger multilateral coordination. For businesses and policymakers, this means rethinking how trade flows adapt to regional instability. The shift toward sustainability—through low-carbon shipping innovations—adds another layer of complexity but also opportunity for modernization.

As global shipping recalibrates, the focus must remain on keeping trade lanes open, supporting port infrastructure, and ensuring that supply chain vulnerabilities are addressed before the next crisis strikes.

Related Resources

• The Future of Shipping Container Logistics 2025
• Shipping Container Prices Update 2025
• Global Trade Impact of Shipping Container Shortages
• Shipping Container Architecture Designs
• UNCTAD: War in Ukraine Triggers Global Shipping Shocks

Looking ahead: The stability of maritime trade depends on continued collaboration, modernization, and responsible investment. To learn how container availability and shipping costs affect your business directly, explore our Shipping Container Sales & Services 2025 or Get a Quote today.