Global Shipping Crisis 2026: Hormuz, the Red Sea, Black Sea and What It Actually Does to Container Prices

Last updated: 14 September 2026 · By Adrian Stan-Stefanescu, Founder, YES Containers

The short version. The global shipping crisis is real and it is getting worse, but the headline number everyone is quoting is wrong. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since 28 February — six transits were recorded on 6 September against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day. Over this past weekend, Houthi forces completed their takeover of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline and now effectively control Bab el-Mandeb. The UN's maritime agency calls the situation "genuinely unprecedented."

And yet container freight rates are flat. Drewry's World Container Index held steady at $4,476 per 40ft box on 10 September — the second straight week of no movement. The widely repeated claim that Asia-to-US rates are "spiking 30 to 50%" describes something that happened months ago, not something happening now.

Both things are true at once. That's the part worth understanding.

Where things actually stand today

Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed?

Yes. It has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel began air strikes on Iran and the IRGC responded by barring passage, boarding merchant vessels and laying sea mines.

The scale of the shutdown is easy to understate. Before the war, roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne crude and about a fifth of its LNG passed through the strait. IMF PortWatch recorded 6 transits on 6 September against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Most of the vessels still moving are running with their tracking transponders off.

Talks have started and stalled. A regional meeting in Salalah to discuss an Omani plan for reopening the strait was postponed indefinitely on 13 September, and the United States was not party to it.

What is happening in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb right now?

This is the part that changed in the last 72 hours, and it is the most significant development of the month.

Houthi forces have completed their takeover of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline, capturing the port city of Mocha and overrunning Mayyun island, also known as Perim. They are now positioned around 20 kilometres from the African coast, which puts the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint effectively within their control.

What makes this worse rather than merely more of the same: holding the coastline lets them threaten the strait with cheap short-range weapons — artillery, small drones — instead of the more advanced munitions they had been using. That lowers the cost of interdiction and frees up the expensive weapons for other targets.

Here's the detail most coverage is missing. Red Sea traffic had been recovering through August. Lloyd's List Intelligence tracked at least 302 transits through Bab el-Mandeb in the single week of 17–23 August, the highest since the Saudi-linked shipping ban. The market read was that Houthi threats were aimed at a narrow subset of Saudi-linked tonnage rather than at shipping generally, and carriers were cautiously returning.

That recovery has now gone into reverse. Xeneta's chief analyst Peter Sand told CNN transits fell around 46% in the days following the fighting, on top of a 60–70% decline already in place since 2023.

Why the UN calls this a global shipping crisis unlike any before

Four active danger zones at once: Hormuz, the Red Sea, the waters off Somalia and the Black Sea. According to Damien Chevallier, who directs the Maritime Safety Division at the International Maritime Organization, the industry has not faced anything on this scale before.

Some figures from that interview worth holding on to:

• Around 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers were caught up in the Hormuz crisis at its outset.
• Somali piracy has surged because naval assets were pulled toward the Red Sea and Hormuz, leaving a gap that pirates moved into — smaller bulk carriers are the main targets.
• Ukrainian grain ports are handling one or two vessels a day in harvest season, against a normal 20 to 30.

The IMO's framing is that ships and crews are being used as leverage in disputes that have nothing to do with them. That is a different problem from a canal being blocked by a grounded vessel, and it does not resolve on a predictable timetable.

Are container freight rates actually spiking?

No — and this is where most of the coverage you'll read this week is wrong.

Drewry's World Container Index sat at $4,476 per 40ft container on 10 September, unchanged for a second consecutive week. Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to $7,352. Shanghai to New York rose 1% to $9,726. Drewry's own expectation was for rates to stay stable the following week.

On the Asia–Europe lanes rates are actually falling: Shanghai to Rotterdam down 2% to $3,997, Shanghai to Genoa down 3% to $4,216. The reason is counter-intuitive but simple — carriers selectively returning to the Suez Canal has restored effective capacity, and more capacity pushes rates down.

So where does "30 to 50%" come from? From measuring against the start of the year. In February, Shanghai to Los Angeles was $4,683 and Shanghai to New York was $5,870. Against those numbers, today's rates are up roughly 57% and 66%.

Both statements are true. Only one of them is news. Rates repriced months ago, when the crisis began. They are not repricing this week. Anyone telling you freight costs are spiking right now, today, is describing February.

Two genuine pressure points do exist:

1. Emergency fuel surcharges. Carriers added these from August 2026 specifically because of Hormuz. They sit on top of the base rate and don't show up in the headline index.
2. Blank sailings. Drewry counted eight cancelled transpacific sailings for the following week, up from seven. Cancelled sailings tighten capacity, and tight capacity is what moves rates next.

What the global shipping crisis actually does to shipping container prices in the US

We wrote a piece last week about the new Arctic route and concluded it would have essentially no effect on American container prices. This one is different, and we'd rather be straight about that than be consistently reassuring.

One-trip containers are directly exposed. A one-trip container is manufactured in China and reaches a US depot as cargo on a ship. Its landed cost includes that transpacific freight — currently $7,352 per 40ft to Los Angeles, plus an emergency fuel surcharge. When ocean freight runs high for a sustained period, one-trip pricing follows. It has already moved this year, and it is the grade most sensitive to what happens next.

Used containers move later and less. The supply of used cargo-worthy and wind-and-water-tight boxes in the US comes from surplus accumulating at ports, because America imports far more containers than it exports. That surplus is a function of import volume, not freight rates. Blank sailings reduce the number of boxes arriving, which thins depot inventory — but on a lag of months, not weeks.

Steel sits underneath all of it. A new container is roughly two to four tonnes of Corten steel. Energy costs feed steel costs, and Brent at $104–107 is not a neutral input.

And your ZIP code still outranks all of it. The distance from the nearest depot to your gate remains the single biggest line item in what you actually pay. A geopolitical crisis six thousand miles away does not change the trucking bill from Houston to your property, and for most buyers that bill is the difference between one quote and another.

Should you buy a shipping container now, or wait?

We're not going to use a war as a closing technique. Here is the honest framing.

Reasons the case for buying sooner is genuine: one-trip pricing is directly exposed to transpacific freight, blank sailings are increasing, and none of the four crisis zones has a visible resolution date. If you were already going to buy this year, the cost of waiting is real rather than theoretical.

Reasons not to panic: freight rates are flat right now, not climbing. Used container supply at US depots is a stock built up over years and doesn't empty in a quarter. And if prices ease, they'll ease slowly — there's no cliff on either side.

The dishonest version, which you will hear from somebody this month: "prices are about to explode, buy today." Nothing in the current data supports that. The repricing already happened, in the spring.

If you need a container in the next six months, buying sooner is defensible. If you don't, waiting is not reckless.

What we tell customers

We sell new one-trip and used containers into all 48 continental states, so we have an obvious interest in you buying one. Which is exactly why we'd rather give you the numbers than the drama.

Pay on Delivery — you pay when the container is on your ground, not before. New customers can use code NEW100, and we hold a standing discount for military and first responders.

Get a delivered price to your ZIP code → or call 800-223-4755. Ask what's actually at your nearest depot — availability by grade varies a lot more by location than any headline suggests.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed in September 2026?
Yes. It has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since 28 February 2026. IMF PortWatch recorded 6 transits on 6 September against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Reopening talks between Gulf states and Iran were postponed indefinitely on 13 September.

Do the Houthis control Bab el-Mandeb?
Effectively, yes, as of mid-September 2026. Houthi forces completed their takeover of Yemen's Red Sea coastline over the weekend of 12 to 13 September, capturing Mocha and Perim island, placing them roughly 20 kilometres from the African side of the strait.

Are shipping container freight rates going up right now?
No. Drewry's World Container Index was flat at $4,476 per 40ft on 10 September 2026, unchanged for a second week. Transpacific rates rose 1 to 2 percent; Asia-Europe rates fell 2 to 3 percent. Rates rose sharply earlier in 2026 and have since plateaued at that higher level.

How much has shipping cost increased in 2026?
Measured from February 2026, Shanghai to Los Angeles is up roughly 57 percent and Shanghai to New York roughly 66 percent. Measured week to week in September, rates are essentially unchanged.

Will the global shipping crisis make shipping containers more expensive in the US?
For one-trip containers, yes. Their landed cost includes transpacific ocean freight plus emergency fuel surcharges, and both are elevated. For used containers the effect is slower and weaker, since US supply depends on import volume accumulating at depots over months.

What is the difference between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb?
Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and carries mainly oil and LNG. Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, carrying container traffic between Asia and Europe. They are separate chokepoints with separate conflicts.

How long does rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope add?
Roughly one to three weeks on an Asia to Europe voyage, plus additional fuel, insurance and crew cost.

Should I buy a shipping container now because of the shipping crisis?
If you were already planning to buy within six months, buying sooner is defensible, since one-trip pricing is exposed to freight costs that show no sign of falling. If you were not, there is no evidence of an imminent price spike. Freight rates are currently flat.

How much does a 20ft shipping container cost in the United States?
It depends on condition and distance from the nearest depot, and delivery is often the largest single line item. Ask for a delivered quote against your actual ZIP code rather than working from a national average.

What is the difference between a one-trip and a used shipping container?
A one-trip container has made a single loaded voyage from the factory, so it is structurally near-new with clean paint and tight seals. A used cargo-worthy container has years of service on it: sound and watertight, but with dents, patches and surface rust.

Why do container prices vary so much between US cities?
Containers accumulate where imports land. Port cities like Houston, Los Angeles and Savannah hold surplus inventory, while inland and mountain-west markets pay for the trucking to get a box there. The same container can differ by a thousand dollars or more between two states.

Does a shipping container need a permit on my property?
It depends on your county and municipality. Some treat a container as a temporary structure requiring nothing; others require a permit, setback or screening. Check with your local zoning office before buying.

Sources

• UN News — IMO on the convergence of maritime crises, 8 September 2026
• Al Jazeera — Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb coastline, 13 September 2026
• CNN Business — Bab al-Mandeb and the global economy, 11 September 2026
• CNN — Hormuz reopening talks postponed, 13 September 2026
• Drewry World Container Index, 10 September 2026
• Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief, 3 September 2026
• Congressional Research Service — Strait of Hormuz security developments
• Straits.live Hormuz transit monitor, IMF PortWatch data